|
|
2010
Reserve Draft Analysis |
|
| |
|
|
| |
by Steven Prentiss
There is a slight
change in the way grades are determined this year. Putting
this list together is much harder to do than it used to be.
In previous years, with more and more teams stockpiling minor
leaguer (and in some cases college and Japan league players),
it was hard to get a read of how good a team’s reserve
draft actually was. For most teams, you could have given them
an incomplete, until we saw how some of the prospects panned
out. However, I never went back to evaluate how a draft class
actually worked out. So from this point forward, teams will
get credit for players that they drafted in previous years
but who finally paid dividends. In reality, a team that keeps
a free player is essentially giving up their 10th round reserve
pick, and therefore, should get credit for whatever that player
produced. Still there are only two ways that a free keeper
affected the overall grade - if they were good enough to help
the team in 2010 or if they were so bad that a team would have
done better to not keep them and make another reserve round
selection.
Here’s the team-by-team analysis in order of draft selection:
PROLONGING THE MAGIC
Best Pick: Jose Bautista (16th pick
of the 6th round)
Worst Pick: Nick Blackburn (16th
pick of the 2nd round)
Comments: The Magic had little magic
in the first five rounds of the reserve before pulling
a rabbit out of their hat with the final pick of
the 6th round. Jose Bautista hit an amazing 54 HR
and won both the HCBB Best Draft Day Value and HCBB
MVP awards. He may be the best draft day reserve
pick in the history of the league, although Jeff
thought so highly of him that he traded him in early
May for Chris Volstad. In addition, Prolonging the
Magic keepers Andrew McCutchen and Michael Stanton,
both delivered significant value in 2010 – McCutchen
was activated right after the draft and a free Stanton
was included in a mid-season dump trade (that returned
Bautista back to the Magic).
Overall Grade: A+
|
|
TEE TIMERS
Best Pick: Colby Lewis (2nd pick of
the 5th round)
Worst Pick: Daniel Murphy (15th
pick of the 6th round)
Comments: The Tee Timers were able
to mine a quality bullpen starter in Lewis in the
5th round. Even after he lost bullpen eligibility,
he was still valuable as a starter. The rest of the
Tee Timers reserve picks were either chosen with
an eye to the future (Chris Carter) or were basically
worthless (Daniel Murphy). After the Tee Timers slow
start, there was no incentive to activate their three
free keepers from 2009 (Buster Posey, Alcides Escobar & Austin
Jackson), but they will provide value in the near
future.
Overall Grade: C-
|
|
ROLL THE BONES
Best Pick: Fausto Carmona (3rd pick
of the 3rd round)
Worst Pick: Zach Duke (14th pick
of the 4th round)
Comments: Carmona turned out to
be a top 50 starting pitcher, not a bad end result
from a 3rd round reserve pick. Two of their top five
reserve picks were used on the future (Jesus Montero
and Kyle Drabek) and both should have value in 2011.
The rest of the draft was a disappointment but two
of their three free keepers from 2009 (Wade Davis
and Jose Tabata) may finally show a profit in 2011,
but until they do, no credit here for the Bones.
Overall Grade: D+
|
|
TASMANIAN DEVILS
Best Pick: Carl Pavano (13th pick
of the 4th round)
Worst Pick: Justin Masterson (4th
pick of the 3rd round)
Comments: The Devils were tremendous,
finding three of the top 40 starters in the league
(Carl Pavano, Dallas Braden and Ricky Romero) in the
reserve draft, providing the squad exceptional depth
at a very shallow position. The Devils were able to
trade two of those picks for much needed offense and
just missed the final money spot. In addition, they
also found super sub Ty Wigginton in the 9th round.
Only Justin Masterson and Ryan Sweeney were worthless
picks.
Overall Grade: A+
|
|
A QUALITY PRODUCT
Best Pick: Carlos Santana (5th pick
of the 1st round)
Worst Pick: Jason Marquis (4th pick
of the 7th round)
Comments: As a second year franchise,
A Quality Product used the 2010 reserve draft to build
for the future. With Steven Strasburg, Brett Wallace
and Jonathan Niese from the 2009 reserve draft, AQP
added Carlos Santana, Dee Gordon and Brett Lawrie to
the stable last year. From there, however, it was all
downhill. The non-prospect selections were horrible
and provided no value in 2010 and a season-ending injury
to Strasburg looked to last well into 2011. Of course,
we’ll never know how well it worked out for AQP
as they will not be returning in 2011.
Overall Grade: F
|
|
LIGHT BULBS
Best Pick: Domonic Brown (6th pick
of the 1st round)
Worst Pick: Ken Griffey, Jr. (11th
pick of the 6th round)
Comments: The Bulbs entered the season
with two free keepers (Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson)
and doubled down, adding SEVEN more prospects, the
only non-prospect being a washed up Ken Griffey, Jr.
In 2011, we could see two of those prospects (Domonic
Brown and Bumgarner) produce serious profits, a couple
others could be mid-season callups, but no value was
garnered in 2010 from this draft.
Overall Grade: INCOMPLETE
|
|
TIME TO RUN
Best Pick: Aubrey Huff (7th pick of
the 1st round)
Worst Pick: Willy Taveras (10th pick
of the 2nd round)
Comments: While the majority of teams
making first round selections went with top prospects,
Time to Run used their first round selection on Huff,
who proved to be one of the top draft day bargains.
They also were able to land Mike Pelfrey, who ended
up being Time to Run’s second best starter. However,
the rest of their draft was lacking. A couple of free
keepers from 2009 provided some value (Seth Smith & Homer
Bailey), while the majority were as useful as tits
on a bull (Willy Taveras, Hank Blalock, Emilio Bonifacio & Jensen
Lewis).
Overall Grade: C
|
|
HALF CAJUN
Best Pick: Hong-Chih Kuo (8th pick
of the 5th round)
Worst Pick: Barry Zito (8th pick of
the 3rd round)
Comments: Half Cajun entered 2010
with two of the best free keepers in the league, Colby
Rasmus and Jason Heyward, who both provided immediate
impact in the Cajun lineup. In the 2010 reserve draft,
they replaced those two with top prospects Freddie
Freeman and Josh Bell. Eight round selection Hong-Chih
Kuo was outstanding in the pen, eventually closing
games for the Dodgers. Half Cajun also played a form
of Russian Roulette, shuttling a mediocre Paul Maholm
in and out of the lineup. The rest of the reserve draft
was forgettable.
Overall Grade: A-
|
|
BUTT PIRATES
Best Pick: Anibal Sanchez (9th pick
of the 3rd round)
Worst Pick: Eric Byrnes (8th pick
of the 7th round)
Comments: The Butt Pirates were just
one of four teams to enter the 2010 with no free keepers,
so they spent most of the reserve rounds loading up
on prospects (Michael Taylor, Aaron Hicks, Brandon
Allen & Yu Darvish). Three other picks had varying
levels of value. Anibal Sanchez ended up being one
of the Pirates best starters, Joel Zumaya was adequate
as a 5th reliever and Will Venable added a little bit
of pop from the outfield. The other three selections
ranged from bad (Jeff Clement) to worse (Dave Bush)
to horrific (Eric Byrnes).
Overall Grade: D+
|
|
BALL HOGS
Best Pick: Ike Davis (10th pick of
the 3rd round)
Worst Pick: Chris Young (7th pick
of the 2nd round)
Comments: The Hogs entered 2010 with
Neftali Feliz and Gaby Sanchez as free keepers. Their
eight reserve picks in 2010 were a mixed bag. Russell
Branyan, Ike Davis, Wade LeBlanc and Mike Leake all
provided significant value, either in the Hogs lineup,
in trade or both. Chris Young (the pitcher), Jason
Castro and Tony Gwynn Jr., however, were wasted picks,
providing no value now or in the future. The jury is
still out on their final reserve pick, Adenis Hechevarria,
who looks to be at least a couple more years away from
making an impact
Overall Grade: A-
|
|
SUICIDE SQUEEZE
Best Pick: Skip Schumaker (9th pick
of the 8th round)
Worst Picks: Jermaine Dye (6th pick
of the 4th round), Pedro Martinez (11th pick of the
5th round), Elijah Dukes (3rd pick of the 10th round)
Comments: Kenny began the 2010 auction with a raging hangover
and ended the day with one of the worst reserve drafts in recent memory.
You know you’ve had a bad reserve draft when Skip Schumaker is your
best pick. Most of the picks were below replacement value (Ryan Rowland-Smith,
Mike Lowell, Brad Bergesen, Randy Winn & Cristian Guzman). And three
of them were complete flyers (Jermaine Dye, Pedro Martinez & Elijah Dukes)
that started the season the same way they began it – sitting at home
waiting for a major league team to call. No truth to the rumor that the Squeeze
is targeting Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds and Steve Bedrosian in the 2011 reserve
draft.
Overall Grade: F
|
|
CLUELESS
Best Pick: Joel Hanrahan (11th pick
of the 7th round)
Worst Pick: Felix Pie (12th pick of
the 5th round)
Comments: With no free keepers entering
the 2010 season, Clueless spent half their draft restocking
the cupboard, selecting wunderkind Bryce Harper, Jordan
Schafer and Mike Montgomery, among others. The remaining
five picks had varying degrees of success. Joel Hanrahan
and Sean Marshall were pretty good middle relievers,
and Hanrahan eventually evolved into a part-time closer.
Chris Volstad was good enough to garner a trade for
Jose Bautista in early May. Felix Pie, however, was
good at only one thing – being the HCBB message
board whipping boy.
Overall Grade: C+
|
|
HOTEL CALIFORNIA
Best Pick: Daniel Hudson (13th pick
of the 3rd round)
Worst Pick: Charlie Morton (12th pick
of the 7th round)
Comments: Hotel spent the early rounds
of the reserve draft stocking up on prospects who never
were activated, including Daniel Hudson and Jeremy
Hellickson. The rest of their reserve draft was used
to add veterans with some upside. Unfortunately, other
than Vincente Padilla, none of the players provided
any significant value, although with the number of
injuries suffered by Hotel, they did see time on the
active roster. Hotel California also got significant
contribution from free keeper Gio Gonzalez, who ended
up being the team’s 3rd best starter.
Overall Grade: C-
|
|
CHARLESTOWN CHIEFS
Best Pick: Lyle Overbay (3rd pick
of the 6th round)
Worst Pick: Rick VandenHurk (14th
pick of the 5th round)
Comments: The Chiefs loaded up on minor league prospects back in the 2009
reserve draft and four of those kids were kept entering 2010. They added
two more prospects in Reid Brignac and Martin Perez, limiting the team to
a bench of four reserves. One of those reserves, Lyle Overbay, ended up being
relatively productive. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, it was on another team,
as they released him in early May before he heated up. The rest of the draft
was unproductive, with all being released before the all-star break.
Overall Grade: D-
|
|
HGH BOYS
Best Pick: Trevor Cahill (2nd pick
of the 4th round)
Worst Pick: Daric Barton (2nd pick
of the 2nd round)
Comments: After a 2009 reserve draft
that saw them select what seemed to be 17 first base
prospects, the HGH Boys took a more well-rounded approach
in 2010. Entering the season with three solid free
keepers in Gordon Beckham, Logan Morrison and Matt
LaPorta (all of whom finished the season in the majors),
HGH reloaded with three more prospects (Starlin Castro,
Ben Revere & Casey Crosby). Other selections, like
Brandon Morrow, Cliff Pennington and Daric Barton,
all added some value. But the Boys struck gold with
Trevor Cahill in the 4th round, who ended up being
a top 10 starter.
Overall Grade: B+
|
|
M*A*S*H
Best Pick: None
Worst Pick: All
Comments: M*A*S*H loaded up on a ton
of lower level prospects (Jenry Mejia, Terry Evans,
Tyler Flowers, Phillippe Aumont and Juan Francisco)
that are unlikely to contribute to the squad for years
to come. Another selection was such a low level prospect
(Abner Abreu) that neither Shandler’s software
nor the CBS Sportsline site even had him in their database.
The remaining players selected were so dreadful that
they barely saw any time in M*A*S*H’s active
roster, an amazing feat considering how poor the team
was as a whole.
Overall Grade: F- |
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
Website design by Second Wind Interactive © 2009
|
