by Steven Prentiss

Total players kept: 155 (NEW RECORD - previous record of 137 set in 2010)
Total dollar players kept: 112 (NEW RECORD – previous record of 105 set in 2010)
Total dollar value: $1743 (NEW RECORD – previous record of $1391 set in 2010)
Total free keepers: 43 (NEW RECORD – previous record of 32 set in 2010)

The keepers for 2011 continue the trend we saw in 2010 – an increase in the number of keepers both dollar and free. In fact, even with one team leaving the league and two expansion teams with no keepers, all records set in 2010 were broken this year, most notably the total dollar amount, which was broken by over $350.

Dollar values were generated by taking the average of 11 fantasy baseball sources (The Sporting News, Yahoo, Fantasy Baseball Index, Fantasy Baseball Guide, Major League Baseball Yearbook, Rototimes, Last Player Picked, ThomasGeorge.com, Fantasy911.com, LABR values and Baseball HQ but NOT Lindy’s), using our league parameters and discarding the highest and lowest value, in order to eliminate the effect of tremendously skewed valuations.

Best keepers:
Only four returning players from last year, including a player making a record 5th-straight appearance.

Carlos Gonzalez

+23.0

In a matter of two short years, Gonzalez has gone from being on our Most Questionable Keeper list to a pre-draft buyout to the #1 spot on the Best Keepers list. CarGo led the NL in hits and batting average (.336), while finishing 4th in HR (34), 2nd in RBI (117), 3rd in runs scored (111) and 11th in stolen bases (26), making him one of the few true 5-category players. At age 25, he should only get better.

Andrew McCutchen

+22.1

McCutchen was #4 on this list last year, shrugged off the potential sophomore slump, and did not disappoint. McCutchen was among the league leaders in stolen bases (34), while hitting .286 with a .365 OBP, both for the second season in a row. At age 24 entering the season, his power numbers could increase this year. And if the Pirates lineup around him improves as it should, his runs should spike as well.

Ryan Braun

+19.4

After two straight years ranked #2 on this list, Braun drops one spot for 2011. And although he is still highly ranked on this list, he saw drops in all statistical categories in 2010. Of course he still hit 25 homers, drove in 103, scored 101 runs and stole 14 bases while still hitting .304. He enters his age 27 season in 2011 and look for him to deliver career bests in all categories, with the possible exception of steals.

Evan Longoria

+19.2

Longoria appears on this list for the 3rd straight year and has established himself as the best 3rd baseman in fantasy baseball. After a stellar rookie of the year campaign in 2008 and a MVP-caliber season in 2009, Longoria saw a significant drop in homeruns (22) and slight decreases in RBIs (104) and runs (96). However, he produced career highs in stolen bases (15) and batting average (.294) and is still just 25 years old. With the departure of Carl Crawford and Carlos Peña, both the Rays and Longoria will be hoping for great things from their replacements, the veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.

Buster Posey

+19.0

Posey was called up from AAA at the end of May last year and never looked back. From that point on, he played nearly every day, even playing a number of games at 1st base when he wasn’t catching. The end result? 18 home runs, 67 RBIs, 58 runs and a .305 average. He’ll be turning 24 the day after our draft and should establish himself as the best fantasy catcher by next year, if not earlier.

Jason Heyward

+17.1

Heyward opened the season as the starting right fielder for the Atlanta Braves and hit the ground running. He had a phenomenal first half of the season before the wear and tear of a full major league season took its toll. And even though his production declined as the season wore on, in the second half he was able to increase his BB/K rate and his average rose over 50 points. He finished with 18 home runs, 72 RBIs, 83 runs, 11 stolen bases and a .277 average. Those numbers might not seem so impressive until you realize that Heyward is just 21 years old.

Michael Stanton

+17.0

Stanton was an early June call up who put up some serious power numbers in a short amount of time. He was extremely streaky at times as the month of August displayed. The first 15 games of the month, Stanton went 20 for 47 with 5 homers. Over the next 10 games, he had only one hit in 33 at bats, striking out 14 times. Overall, his numbers were pretty impressive – 22 home runs and 59 RBIs in just 359 major league at bats. Extrapolate that out to a 162 game season and you’ll see why the Butt Pirates traded for him in the off season.

Austin Jackson

+16.7

A player who only hits 4 home runs doesn’t usually end up on this list, but Jackson’s production in other categories was pretty impressive. In his rookie campaign, he scored 103 runs and stole 27 bases while hitting .293. His first and second half numbers were nearly identical, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts (he had a league-leading 170), he should be able to improve on his numbers in 2011. Even if he doesn’t, at a $1 for the Tee Timers, all he really has to do is replicate last season to be a tremendous value.

Mat Latos

+15.5

Not many pitchers ever make this list, and 2011 is no exception – Latos is the only pitcher this year. In his first full season, he was dominant – 2.92 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and 14 wins over 184 innings. The increase in inning might be a concern for some, but considering that his K/9 rate increased by 2 in the second half last year, he obviously didn’t tire down the stretch and actually got stronger. He’s just 23, pitches half his games in the best pitchers park in baseball, with a good defense behind him, and most importantly, has absolutely dominant stuff. Look for a repeat in 2011, but over more innings. .

Hanley Ramirez

+14.4

This is the 5th straight appearance for Ramirez and since he is in the final year of his initial contract, definitely the last. He finished 2nd in the NL MVP voting in 2009, but his 2010 season was substandard – 21 home runs, 76 RBI, 92 runs, 32 steals and a .300 average. He regressed in every category except steals, but the experts are predicting a return to form in 2011. He should earn $50 again in 2011 and his 2012 bid price will reflect that.

Adam Dunn

-16.0

Dunn was a top-level three category player in 2010 – 38 home runs, 103 RBI and 85 runs and dual positional eligibility (1B & OF). The move to a more hitter-friendly park should help, but considering this will be his first time in the American League, he might take a little bit of time to adjust. Regardless, even if he matches his production from last year, he won’t reach the value of his contract ($42) and may actually struggle to earn $30 for Clueless.

David Wright

-15.1

After struggling in his first season at the Mets’new ballpark, Wright bounced back in a big way in 2010, nearly tripling his home run total. In doing so, Wright re-established himself as one of the top two 3rd basemen in fantasy baseball. That being said, the last time a 3rd baseman came close to earning $50 was back in the ARod on steroids days. Even as one of the top two at his position, the likelihood of him earning the $51 salary at which he was kept is about the same as Colin Montgomerie winning a major.

C.C. Sabathia

-13.2

There was much anticipation surrounding Sabathia’s first season as a Yankee –a top level pitcher going to a team that should win tons of games. His season ended up being very good, but maybe not as good as what was expected. He did end up leading the league with 21 wins and his 237 2/3 innings was among the league leaders. And although his 3.18 ERA and his 1.191 WHIP were within the top 10, considering that he was the 3rd most expensive starter in the league, they were expected to be better. He still is among the best starters in the league, but his $41 is a bit overpriced.

Carl Crawford

-13.0

Crawford’s season in 2010 was simply awesome – 19 home runs, 91 RBIs, 110 runs, 47 steals and a .307 average. He actually had the highest value of any player in the HCBB last year. And now he’s been traded to the Boston Red Sox and will be hitting in the middle of that potent offense and has the potential to reach career highs in most categories. So why is he on this list? Because at $55, the majority of experts think he is overpriced. My feeling is that even at that high salary, he could actually turn a profit. .

Miguel Cabrera

-12.4

Cabrera entered the 2010 newly sober and the prevailing thought amongst many experts was that he could be on the brink of his best season yet. The results? A career-high 38 home runs, a league-leading 126 RBIs, 2nd in the league in runs with 111, 2nd in the league in batting average at .328 and a league-leading .420 on-base percentage. However, an off-season DUI has cast a shadow upon the upcoming season and his $53 salary in 2011 will be difficult to live up to.

Michael Pineda

-11.9

Pineda enters 2011 as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He was absolutely dominant at the AA level last year, posting an 8-1 record with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP in 77 innings. And upon being promoted to AAA, his 4.76 was not indicative of how he pitched –a 1.139 WHIP and an 11.0 K/9 rate showed that he was still dominant. But at just 22 years old, and with the Mariners not expected to contend in 2011, they may chose to leave him at AAA for a little more seasoning and to suppress his service time.

Jose Reyes

-9.3

After four straight seasons on the Best Keeper List (2006-09), this is now his 2nd straight appearance on this list. He stayed healthy in 2010 and was significantly better than he was in 2009. But his numbers were still less than the former fantasy stud used to be able to produce – 11 homers, 54 RBIs, 83 runs and 30 steals. Even at the painfully thin shortstop position, numbers like this just aren’t worth his $36 salary for 2011.

Wandy Rodriguez

-6.4

After a very solid 2099, Wandy regressed in every category and indicator in 2010. Fewer wins (11), a higher ERA (3.60), a higher WHIP (1.287) and fewer innings pitched (195) were disturbing. What’s more troubling is that his K/9 decreased and his BB/9 increased. Unless he rebounds to 2009 levels or even above, he won’t come close to earning his $20 salary in 2011.

J.A. Happ

-5.7

Happ entered 2009 as the 5th starter in Philadelphia, but just two starts in, suffered a strained forearm that cost him nearly four months of the season. After returning, he was immediately shipped to Houston where his fantasy numbers were ok (3.75 ERA and a 1.319 WHIP) but his other indicators weren’t (1.74 K/BB rate and a 4.4 BB/9). In this league, he’s barely better than a replacement level player and locked in the lineup at $11 is likely a losing proposition and the early Vegas line has Happ as the prohibitive favorite to have the Penalty Box of Shame™ named after him.

Edwin Jackson

-4.8

Back in 2003, Jackson entered the majors as a 19-year old phenom. Eight seasons and five teams later, Jackson has a career 4.62 ERA and a 1.485 WHIP. Although only two years removed from a solid season, that may have been the exception, not the norm. He did seem somewhat revitalized by a late season trade to the White Sox, but he has never been able to put together back-to-back acceptable seasons. At $11, he’s a huge risk locked into an active lineup.

Tremendous Upside Potential:
This category is dedicated to ESPN's Mel Kiper, Jr., for players that have the potential to exceed the “experts” value. They are listed in no particular order. Unlike other years where most of the players were top ten overall picks in the MLB Draft, only three are this year..

Jose Tabata

Tabata was one of many Yankee “prospects” to be traded in MLB salary dump deals. Unlike most of these supposed prospects, Tabata seems destined to actually pan out for his team. The Pirates did wait until the early June “Super 2” deadline had passed before they called him up, and he was pretty solid. In 405 MLB at bats, he hit .299 with 4 homers, 35 RBIs, 61 runs and 19 steals. He’ll never be a five category player but as the Pirates leadoff man, he will provide excellent production in runs, steals and batting average.

Madison Bumgarner

At just 20 years old, Bumgarner got the call to the majors and got 18 starts. Although he did have his growing pains (including an outing in which he couldn’t even get out of the 3rd inning), the end result was pretty solid. He posted a 3.00 ERA and a 1.301 WHIP in the regular season. But he really came of age in the Giants title run. In three post-season starts, Bumgarner was spectacular, with a 2.18 ERA and 1.113 WHIP, including an 8-inning, 0 ER performance in Game 4 of the World Series.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson is the next in a long line of great young pitching prospects to come through the Rays organization. An August call up last season saw Hellickson start four games before being shifted to the bullpen to limit his innings. He actually was much better as a starter, and had a quality start in each of his starts. In those four starts, he had a 2.05 ERA with a 0.759 WHIP, allowing only a .172 batting average against and a 25/4 strikeout to walk rate.
The Rays feel confident enough in his abilities, as they traded away Matt Garza in the off-season, opening up a spot in the rotation for him. The big issue may be a potential innings cap, but that should be offset by the fact that he begins the season with bullpen eligibility.

Pedro Alvarez

Things may actually be looking up for the Pirates, considering Alvarez joins Tabata and McCutchen on one of the HCBB “good” lists. Alvarez was the 2nd overall selection in the 2008 MLB draft, a selection that actually took place after Dem Bullwinkle Trouts (now the Charlestown Chiefs) selected him in the 2008 HCBB reserve draft. He showed excellent power potential after a June promotion, hitting 16 homers and driving in 64 in just 347 at bats, batting 5th most of the time. This year, he is penciled in as the Pirates cleanup hitter, and over a full season, he could produce 30 home runs and over 100 RBIs at one of the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball.

Daniel Hudson

The second of Hotel California’s free pitching keepers may end up being the most valuable this year. After trade deadline deal to Arizona, the young hurler was basically unhittable. In 11 starts over nearly 80 innings, Hudson allowed only 51 hits and 16 walks, posting a 1.69 ERA. He has great command of his fastball and has an A+ changeup that keeps hitters off balance. It’s unlikely that he will continue those kinds of extreme trends over the course of a full season, but he looks to be the real deal.

Freddy Freeman

Freeman had a pretty nice season at AAA Gwinnett, hitting 18 homers, driving in 87 while hitting .319. He hasn’t shown too much power, but he is just 21 years and could develop into a Wally Joyner-type player – 20 HR, 100 RBI, .300 AVG. Not outstanding, but very serviceable. Considering that he’s a free keeper this year, that’s quite a value.

Colby Rasmus

Rasmus was the target of a Charlestown Chiefs dump trade last year and although there was interest in him from other teams this off-season, he seemed to be untradeable. He had a solid 2nd season in 2010, with 23 HR, 66 RBI, 85 R, 12 SB and a .276 average – all improvements over his 2009 numbers in fewer at bats while hitting either 5th or 6th in the lineup. He should be batting 2nd in 2011 which portends to a further increase in his numbers. The only concern here is whether or not he stays out of manager Tony LaRussa’s doghouse.

Michael Pineda

Pineda may be on the Most Questionable Keeper list, but the underlying numbers don’t lie. He was pretty dominant in the minors, with a 2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 8.8 K/9 rate. Although his HR rate was high in the minors, playing half his games in Safeco Field should temper that. There were many experts who believed that with nothing to play for this year, the Mariners would leave him in AAA until June to postpone his service time clock. However, at this point, the Mariners 4th and 5th starter candidates include an injury-prone Eric Bedard and MLB scrubs Aaron Laffey, David Pauley and Luke French. Pineda has way more upside than any of those and should be able to nail down one of the final two spots in the rotation right out of spring training.

Drew Storen

There is a reason why Storen was taken #10 overall in the 2009 MLB Entry Draft – he has electric stuff. Storen got the call up last May and had a somewhat uneven 1st trip through the National League. He seemed to tire down the stretch and had two horrendous outings the last two weeks of the season to inflate his ERA close to 4.00. He will be in the mix for saves in 2011 and has the most upside of any of the pitchers in the closing committee.