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2010
Keeper Analysis |
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by Steven Prentiss
Without
further ado, here is the 10th Annual Keeper Analysis.
Team-by-team totals (in order of return):
Half Cajun |
+93 |
Top ten profits from Josh
Hamilton and Billy Wagner, plus four more of the top
25 (Hudson, Buchholz, Rasmus & Heyward) led to
this top ranking. Would have been significantly higher
if James Shields hadn’t pitched like Brooke Shields. |
Charlestown
Chiefs |
+80 |
Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan
Braun were the cream of this crop, with the bullpen
of Heath Bell and Ryan Franklin pitching in to lead
the Chiefs to the 2nd spot in the list. Chad Billingsley
and Julio Borbonifacio both wasted away some of the
profit. |
Hotel California |
+76 |
Rafael Soriano and Evan
Longoria were both top ten keepers, but injuries to
Nelson Cruz, Brett Anderson and Asdrubal Cabrera knocked
the total profit down.
|
Ball Hogs |
+45 |
Neftali Feliz and Shin-Soo
Choo led the Hogs to their 2nd league title. Another
group of guys all posted slight profits. However, the
-$50 suckfest known as Jacoby Ellsbury knocked the
Hogs out of contention for the best keeper class. |
Suicide
Squeeze |
+31 |
Garrett Jones, Nick Swisher
and Bronson Arroyo all posted double-digit profits.
Brad Penny and Jonathan Broxton posted double-digit
losses. All this led to a modest overall profit. |
HGH Boys |
+29 |
HGH had six keepers that
either posted a slight profit or were right at value
and had none that posted a loss. In fact, they were
the only team to not have a keeper on the negative
side of the ledger.
|
Light Bulbs |
+28 |
Ubaldo Jimenez was responsible
for most of this profit. The remaining six keepers
were unable to even post a double-digit profit combined. |
Prolonging
the Magic |
+21 |
Huge profits from Andrew
McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki were almost completely
offset by huge losses from Kendry Morales (over-celebrating)
and Jim
Johnson
(general suckitude). |
Tasmanian
Devils |
-1 |
Adam LaRoche was slightly
undervalue, but the Devils other three keepers were
slightly overvalue. End result – even steven.
|
Clueless |
-5 |
Offense good – all
four offensive keepers either posted a profit or were
at value.
Pitching bad – all of the pitching keepers were
losers.
|
A Quality
Product |
-6 |
A disappointing Alex Rodriguez
and a lack of keepers led to this result. |
Time to
Run |
-16 |
The good – Drew Stubbs
was a top 10 keeper
The bad – Stephen Drew didn’t earn his keep
The ugly – A season ending injury to J.P. Howell
made him a bottom five keeper
|
M*A*S*H |
-17 |
Dan Haren wasn’t
scarin’ no one on the mound in 2010. And Wandy
pitched like Wendy, not helping matters. Even a 50
steal Rajai Davis couldn’t save M*A*S*H from
the bottom tier. |
| Tee Timers |
-18 |
Bad news – Dice-K, Jason Bartlett,
J.A. Happ and Edwin Jackson all were bad keepers.
Worse news – Happ and Jackson are still under contract
in 2011 at $5 more each. |
| Butt Pirates |
-45 |
Hanley was a stud again, but the Everth
Cabrera-Ben Sheets duo was dog shit with worms. Dustin
Pedroia’s season-ending injury didn’t help
matters for the Pirates as they languished again at the
bottom of the keeper list. |
| Roll the Bones |
-108 |
Corey Hart, Matt Kemp and Franklin Gutierrez
all posted double-digit profits in 2010 for the Bones.
But nothing could overcome the triumvirate of doom, aka
Grady “The Bones Killed My Career” Sizemore,
Chris “AAA” Davis and Chad “I Thought
Blown Saves Was a Category” Qualls. Hard to overcome
having three of the bottom six keepers. |
NOTES:
- The total return on the league’s 114
keepers (including free keepers who turned a profit)
was $187, fifth
highest
over the last ten years.
Historical Keeper Values
Year |
Number |
Salary |
Value |
Net |
2010 |
114 |
1400 |
1587 |
187 |
2009 |
95 |
1022 |
995 |
-27 |
| 2008 |
114 |
1271 |
1455 |
184 |
| 2007 |
93 |
1024 |
1449 |
425 |
| 2006 |
80 |
1016 |
1238 |
222 |
| 2005 |
80 |
998 |
1310 |
312 |
| 2004 |
75 |
916 |
1185 |
269 |
| 2003 |
85 |
1022 |
1202 |
180 |
| 2002 |
75 |
1114 |
1029 |
-85 |
| 2001 |
68 |
801 |
924 |
123 |
-
In spite of having one of the worst returns on keepers
(for the second year in a row), the Butt Pirates
somehow finished in the money. Apparently, Dave is
pretty good
on draft day and in-season.
-
Surprisingly, the team that won the Golden Plunger (AQP),
barely finished with a negative on keeper returns. Apparently,
it was their draft day did them in.
-
The fact that the Bones finished with the worst return
on keepers is not surprising considering they had the
worst two keepers, and three of the
bottom six (Sizemore, Davis and Qualls).
-
The player that was the at the top of the list in 2009
finished in the bottom three in 2010 (Jacoby Ellsbury).
-
Of the bottom 10 keepers in 2010, six were keepers in
2009.
-
The top 12 keepers posted a net profit of $314 ($26.17
per keeper). The next 12 keepers posted a net profit
of $197
($16.42 per keeper). The bottom 12 keepers posted a
net loss of -$370 (-$30.83 per keeper). The moral of
the story – bad
keepers hurt more than good keepers help.
For the second year in a row, no active catcher keepers
were able to post a profit. That streak will most likely
end
with Buster
Posey in 2011.
- In 2009, only three relievers posted a profit. In 2010,
three relievers were amongst the top six keepers in profit.
Top Six Returns on Players
Carlos
Gonzalez +$48 (kept for $12, earned $60)
Andrew McCutchen +30 (free keeper $1, earned $31)
Drew Stubbs +27 (kept for $6, earned $33)
Neftali Feliz +26 (free keeper $1, earned $27)
Billy Wagner +26 (kept for $6, earned $32)
Rafael Soriano +26 (kept for $6, earned $32)

Worst Six Returns on Players
Grady Sizemore –$69 (kept for $26, earned –$43)
Chris Davis –$55 (kept for $6, earned –$49)
Jacoby Ellsbury –$50 (kept for $6, earned –$44)
J.P. Howell –$47 (kept for $7, earned –$40)
Everth Cabrera –$36 (kept for $10, earned –$26)
Tie: Chad Qualls –$26 (kept for $6, earned –$22)
Tie: Dan Haren –$26 (kept for $35, earned $8)
A Look Back at the 2010 Keeper Predictions
The struggles of 2008 & 2009 continued, and may
have even gotten worse. Of the top 10 predicted keepers,
only three of them finished in the top 10, 2 more finished
in the top 20 and the remaining five finished 36th,
74th, 75th, 91st and third from the bottom. Only two
of them were hurt by injuries. Of the bottom 10 predicted
keepers, four of them finished in the bottom 10, four
of them were in the lower middle of the pack and failed
to produce a profit, and only two finished in the top
50, producing minimal profit. As usual, Tremendous
Upside Potential™ list was hit or miss, but better
than normal. Two of them (Jason Heyward and Neftali
Feliz) were Rookie of the Year material. Two others
(Buster Posey and Pedro Alvarez) got mid-season call
ups from the minors and were great, although neither
was activated by their respective fantasy teams. Two
others showed tremendous upside (Stephen Strasburg
and Brett Anderson) before injuries derailed their
seasons. Another was good but did not bust out like
predicted (Alex Rodriguez). Two others were disappointing
at best (Matt Wieters and Wade Davis) although both
showed some flashes and will likely be better moving
forward.
And finally...
4rd Annual
Keeper All-Stars - 2010 Edition
POS |
NAME |
SALARY |
VALUE |
PROFIT |
C |
Buster Posey |
1 |
9 |
8 |
1B |
Garrett Jones |
6 |
17 |
11 |
3B |
Evan Longoria |
11 |
34 |
23 |
CI |
Gaby Sanchez |
1 |
17 |
16 |
2B |
Martin Prado |
8 |
19 |
11 |
SS |
Hanley Ramirez |
22 |
39 |
17 |
MI |
Troy Tulowitzki |
18 |
32 |
14 |
OF |
Carlos Gonzalez |
12 |
60 |
48 |
OF |
Andrew McCutchen |
1 |
31 |
30 |
OF |
Drew Stubbs |
6 |
33 |
27 |
OF |
Josh Hamilton |
16 |
40 |
24 |
OF |
Shin-Soo Choo |
11 |
33 |
22 |
U |
Ryan Braun |
16 |
38 |
22 |
SP |
Tim Hudson |
6 |
24 |
18 |
SP |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
8 |
25 |
17 |
SP |
Clay Buchholz |
6 |
21 |
15 |
SP |
Bronson Arroyo |
6 |
17 |
11 |
SP |
Gio Gonzalez |
1 |
12 |
11 |
SP |
Josh Johnson |
11 |
17 |
6 |
RP |
Neftali Feliz |
1 |
27 |
26 |
RP |
Billy Wagner |
6 |
32 |
26 |
RP |
Rafael Soriano |
6 |
32 |
26 |
RP |
Heath Bell |
16 |
32 |
16 |
RP |
Ryan Franklin |
7 |
17 |
10 |
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TOTALS |
203 |
658 |
455 |
4th
Annual Keeper All-Scrubs - 2010 Edition
POS |
NAME |
SALARY |
VALUE |
PROFIT |
C |
Joe Mauer |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
1B |
Chris Davis |
6 |
-49 |
-55 |
3B |
Alex Rodriguez |
41 |
30 |
-11 |
CI |
Kendry Morales |
6 |
-10 |
-16 |
2B |
Asdrubal Cabrera |
8 |
-10 |
-18 |
SS |
Everth Cabrera |
10 |
-26 |
-36 |
MI |
Derek Jeter |
28 |
20 |
-8 |
OF |
Grady Sizemore |
26 |
-43 |
-69 |
OF |
Jacoby Ellsbury |
6 |
-44 |
-50 |
OF |
Chris Coghlan |
8 |
1 |
-7 |
OF |
Julio Borbon |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
OF |
Jason Kubel |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
U |
Jason Bartlett |
11 |
4 |
-7 |
SP |
Dan Haren |
35 |
8 |
-27 |
SP |
James Shields |
16 |
-5 |
-21 |
SP |
Daisuke Matsuzaka |
16 |
-1 |
-17 |
SP |
Ben Sheets |
6 |
-11 |
-17 |
SP |
Joe Blanton |
8 |
-6 |
-14 |
SP |
Brad Penny |
6 |
-6 |
-12 |
RP |
J.P. Howell |
7 |
-42 |
-49 |
RP |
Chad Qualls |
6 |
-22 |
-28 |
RP |
Jim Johnson |
6 |
-10 |
-16 |
RP |
Jonathan Broxton |
20 |
8 |
-12 |
RP |
Frank Francisco |
9 |
1 |
-8 |
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TOTALS |
325 |
-182 |
-507 |
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