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2010 Keeper Analysis
 
     
  by Steven Prentiss

Without further ado, here is the 10th Annual Keeper Analysis.

Team-by-team totals (in order of return):

Half Cajun

+93

Top ten profits from Josh Hamilton and Billy Wagner, plus four more of the top 25 (Hudson, Buchholz, Rasmus & Heyward) led to this top ranking. Would have been significantly higher if James Shields hadn’t pitched like Brooke Shields.

Charlestown Chiefs

+80

Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Braun were the cream of this crop, with the bullpen of Heath Bell and Ryan Franklin pitching in to lead the Chiefs to the 2nd spot in the list. Chad Billingsley and Julio Borbonifacio both wasted away some of the profit.

Hotel California

+76

Rafael Soriano and Evan Longoria were both top ten keepers, but injuries to Nelson Cruz, Brett Anderson and Asdrubal Cabrera knocked the total profit down.

Ball Hogs

+45

Neftali Feliz and Shin-Soo Choo led the Hogs to their 2nd league title. Another group of guys all posted slight profits. However, the -$50 suckfest known as Jacoby Ellsbury knocked the Hogs out of contention for the best keeper class.

Suicide Squeeze

+31

Garrett Jones, Nick Swisher and Bronson Arroyo all posted double-digit profits. Brad Penny and Jonathan Broxton posted double-digit losses. All this led to a modest overall profit.

HGH Boys

+29

HGH had six keepers that either posted a slight profit or were right at value and had none that posted a loss. In fact, they were the only team to not have a keeper on the negative side of the ledger.

Light Bulbs

+28

Ubaldo Jimenez was responsible for most of this profit. The remaining six keepers were unable to even post a double-digit profit combined.

Prolonging the Magic

+21

Huge profits from Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki were almost completely offset by huge losses from Kendry Morales (over-celebrating) and Jim Johnson (general suckitude).

Tasmanian Devils

-1

Adam LaRoche was slightly undervalue, but the Devils other three keepers were slightly overvalue. End result – even steven.

Clueless

-5

Offense good – all four offensive keepers either posted a profit or were at value.
Pitching bad – all of the pitching keepers were losers.

A Quality Product

-6

A disappointing Alex Rodriguez and a lack of keepers led to this result.

Time to Run

-16

The good – Drew Stubbs was a top 10 keeper
The bad – Stephen Drew didn’t earn his keep
The ugly – A season ending injury to J.P. Howell made him a bottom five keeper

M*A*S*H

-17

Dan Haren wasn’t scarin’ no one on the mound in 2010. And Wandy pitched like Wendy, not helping matters. Even a 50 steal Rajai Davis couldn’t save M*A*S*H from the bottom tier.

Tee Timers
-18
Bad news – Dice-K, Jason Bartlett, J.A. Happ and Edwin Jackson all were bad keepers.
Worse news – Happ and Jackson are still under contract in 2011 at $5 more each.
Butt Pirates
-45
Hanley was a stud again, but the Everth Cabrera-Ben Sheets duo was dog shit with worms. Dustin Pedroia’s season-ending injury didn’t help matters for the Pirates as they languished again at the bottom of the keeper list.
Roll the Bones
-108
Corey Hart, Matt Kemp and Franklin Gutierrez all posted double-digit profits in 2010 for the Bones. But nothing could overcome the triumvirate of doom, aka Grady “The Bones Killed My Career” Sizemore, Chris “AAA” Davis and Chad “I Thought Blown Saves Was a Category” Qualls. Hard to overcome having three of the bottom six keepers.


NOTES:

  • The total return on the league’s 114 keepers (including free keepers who turned a profit) was $187, fifth highest over the last ten years.
Historical Keeper Values
Year
Number
Salary
Value
Net
2010
114
1400
1587
187
2009
95
1022
995
-27
2008
114
1271
1455
184
2007
93
1024
1449
425
2006
80
1016
1238
222
2005
80
998
1310
312
2004
75
916
1185
269
2003
85
1022
1202
180
2002
75
1114
1029
-85
2001
68
801
924
123
  • In spite of having one of the worst returns on keepers (for the second year in a row), the Butt Pirates somehow finished in the money. Apparently, Dave is pretty good on draft day and in-season.

  • Surprisingly, the team that won the Golden Plunger (AQP), barely finished with a negative on keeper returns. Apparently, it was their draft day did them in.

  • The fact that the Bones finished with the worst return on keepers is not surprising considering they had the worst two keepers, and three of the bottom six (Sizemore, Davis and Qualls).

  • The player that was the at the top of the list in 2009 finished in the bottom three in 2010 (Jacoby Ellsbury).

  • Of the bottom 10 keepers in 2010, six were keepers in 2009.

  • The top 12 keepers posted a net profit of $314 ($26.17 per keeper). The next 12 keepers posted a net profit of $197 ($16.42 per keeper). The bottom 12 keepers posted a net loss of -$370 (-$30.83 per keeper). The moral of the story – bad keepers hurt more than good keepers help.

  • For the second year in a row, no active catcher keepers were able to post a profit. That streak will most likely end with Buster Posey in 2011.

  • In 2009, only three relievers posted a profit. In 2010, three relievers were amongst the top six keepers in profit.


    Top Six Returns on Players

    Carlos Gonzalez +$48 (kept for $12, earned $60)
    Andrew McCutchen +30 (free keeper $1, earned $31)
    Drew Stubbs +27 (kept for $6, earned $33)
    Neftali Feliz +26 (free keeper $1, earned $27)
    Billy Wagner +26 (kept for $6, earned $32)
    Rafael Soriano +26 (kept for $6, earned $32)


    Worst Six Returns on Players

    Grady Sizemore –$69 (kept for $26, earned –$43)
    Chris Davis –$55 (kept for $6, earned –$49)
    Jacoby Ellsbury –$50 (kept for $6, earned –$44)
    J.P. Howell –$47 (kept for $7, earned –$40)
    Everth Cabrera –$36 (kept for $10, earned –$26)
    Tie: Chad Qualls –$26 (kept for $6, earned –$22)
    Tie: Dan Haren –$26 (kept for $35, earned $8)



    A Look Back at the 2010 Keeper Predictions

    The struggles of 2008 & 2009 continued, and may have even gotten worse. Of the top 10 predicted keepers, only three of them finished in the top 10, 2 more finished in the top 20 and the remaining five finished 36th, 74th, 75th, 91st and third from the bottom. Only two of them were hurt by injuries. Of the bottom 10 predicted keepers, four of them finished in the bottom 10, four of them were in the lower middle of the pack and failed to produce a profit, and only two finished in the top 50, producing minimal profit. As usual, Tremendous Upside Potential™ list was hit or miss, but better than normal. Two of them (Jason Heyward and Neftali Feliz) were Rookie of the Year material. Two others (Buster Posey and Pedro Alvarez) got mid-season call ups from the minors and were great, although neither was activated by their respective fantasy teams. Two others showed tremendous upside (Stephen Strasburg and Brett Anderson) before injuries derailed their seasons. Another was good but did not bust out like predicted (Alex Rodriguez). Two others were disappointing at best (Matt Wieters and Wade Davis) although both showed some flashes and will likely be better moving forward.

    And finally...

4rd Annual Keeper All-Stars - 2010 Edition

POS
NAME
SALARY
VALUE
PROFIT
C
Buster Posey
1
9
8
1B
Garrett Jones
6
17
11
3B
Evan Longoria
11
34
23
CI
Gaby Sanchez
1
17
16
2B
Martin Prado
8
19
11
SS
Hanley Ramirez
22
39
17
MI
Troy Tulowitzki
18
32
14
OF
Carlos Gonzalez
12
60
48
OF
Andrew McCutchen
1
31
30
OF
Drew Stubbs
6
33
27
OF
Josh Hamilton
16
40
24
OF
Shin-Soo Choo
11
33
22
U
Ryan Braun
16
38
22
SP
Tim Hudson
6
24
18
SP
Ubaldo Jimenez
8
25
17
SP
Clay Buchholz
6
21
15
SP
Bronson Arroyo
6
17
11
SP
Gio Gonzalez
1
12
11
SP
Josh Johnson
11
17
6
RP
Neftali Feliz
1
27
26
RP
Billy Wagner
6
32
26
RP
Rafael Soriano
6
32
26
RP
Heath Bell
16
32
16
RP
Ryan Franklin
7
17
10
TOTALS
203
658
455


4th Annual Keeper All-Scrubs - 2010 Edition
 

POS
NAME
SALARY
VALUE
PROFIT
C
Joe Mauer
15
13
-2
1B
Chris Davis
6
-49
-55
3B
Alex Rodriguez
41
30
-11
CI
Kendry Morales
6
-10
-16
2B
Asdrubal Cabrera
8
-10
-18
SS
Everth Cabrera
10
-26
-36
MI
Derek Jeter
28
20
-8
OF
Grady Sizemore
26
-43
-69
OF
Jacoby Ellsbury
6
-44
-50
OF
Chris Coghlan
8
1
-7
OF
Julio Borbon
10
6
-4
OF
Jason Kubel
15
12
-3
U
Jason Bartlett
11
4
-7
SP
Dan Haren
35
8
-27
SP
James Shields
16
-5
-21
SP
Daisuke Matsuzaka
16
-1
-17
SP
Ben Sheets
6
-11
-17
SP
Joe Blanton
8
-6
-14
SP
Brad Penny
6
-6
-12
RP
J.P. Howell
7
-42
-49
RP
Chad Qualls
6
-22
-28
RP
Jim Johnson
6
-10
-16
RP
Jonathan Broxton
20
8
-12
RP
Frank Francisco
9
1
-8
TOTALS
325
-182
-507

 


 
 

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